Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
