Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
